Two major data releases over the past week – April’s Nationwide House Price Index and the Bank of England’s March Money and Credit statistics – provide a useful cross-check on the current state of the UK property market. While headlines will focus on falling prices and borrowing spikes, the underlying signals for property investors are, as ever, more nuanced.

April Price Dip Masks Underlying Market Dynamics

Nationwide reported a 0.6% fall in house prices in April, the largest monthly drop since August 2023. But context matters: this follows a surge in completions during March, as buyers rushed to meet the 1 April stamp duty threshold rollback. That one-off spike brought forward a chunk of demand – softening price data for April.

The three-month-on-three-month measure, often a more stable guide to market trajectory, remained positive, albeit flatter. This suggests a market digesting policy change, not collapsing under it.

Mortgage Trends: Approvals Point to Caution – and Refinancing

The Bank of England’s latest lending figures reflect the same trend. Net mortgage borrowing jumped to £13.0bn in March – the highest since mid-2021 – driven by that same wave of pre-deadline completions.

But beneath the surface, a shift is underway:

•Mortgage approvals for purchases fell again, to 64,300 – their third monthly decline•

•Remortgaging approvals rose to 33,400, the highest since October 2023

That combination points to growing caution among households and investors alike. With affordability still stretched, many are opting to refinance and stay put rather than take on new debt or expand portfolios. This aligns closely with what we highlighted in our Spring Statement commentary — a market in repositioning mode, not retreat.

Funding Relief on the Horizon for Property Investors

For property investors, there are encouraging signals on the cost of capital. The average two-year swap rate fell to 3.77% in April, down from 4.13% in Q1. That movement has already started to feed through into product pricing – stabilising rates and potentially offsetting some of the cost pressures from higher stamp duty.

What’s more, if you look at the implied Bank Base Rate (BBR) based on forward SONIA today (Sterling Overnight Index Average – or the rates that underpins UK loan and SWAP pricing), it suggests that by mid-September, SONIA will sit at 3.73% – equivalent to a Bank of England Base Rate of 3.75%. So a continued fall in borrowing costs, which will help catalyse a post-summer resurgence in the UK property market.

Combined with greater pricing leverage post-March, the conditions now favour those with a clear investment thesis and access to flexible, responsive finance.

Key Takeaways for Investors: Selectivity and Strategic Timing

This isn’t a market trending upward across the board — but it’s also not one in freefall. Instead, we’re seeing:

•Pockets of pricing softness, where deals missed the March window

•Investor selectivity, favouring assets where risk can be controlled at the point of entry

•An emerging platform of rate stability, with swap rate shifts pointing to steadier product costs in Q2

As we said in March, deal structure and timing matter more than speed. For those focused on refurbishment, retrofit, or value-add strategies, the coming months may offer strong relative value — especially in markets where motivated sellers need to reprice.